Iran’s regime will be changed by China, the USA, and India. The three powers have divided the world into three spheres of influence (see the Tripolar World 17.9.23). Iran has the (mis)fortune to be the main point of contact between the three powers.
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The Indian maritime route will connect to the Chinese Road and Belt Initiative through the port of Chabahar. India needs it for its port of Mumbai (Bombay).
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China will need even better access to Iranian petroleum. It is worth remembering that historically Chinese influence is visible in Iranian art and vice versa. They are closer than it appears superficially. The commercial routes have always connected them.
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The United States cherishes the alliance with Israel. However, Israel is geographically a small country. The Usa preferred the times when Israel and Iran were allies (until 1979).
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Iran is at the very centre of the Tripolar World.
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The Russian defeat in Ukraine has meant the collapse of shared interests of Iran and Russia. Syria was a common project which is now outside their spheres of influence. The difficulties of Hamas and Hezbollah are a blow for both Russia and Iran. Russia has scaled down its collaboration with Iran. They are not naturally allies and in the past competed with each other. Russia historically has fought against Persia for influence over the Caucasus. The writer Griboyedov, who wrote the treatise of Turkmenchay, was killed by a Persian mob in the Russian Embassy in Tehran in 1829.
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Iran is alone.
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This is a huge problem for the regime which has been sufferring internally. Social tensions and economic difficulties are aggravating the situation.
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If the commercial interests (the merchants are traditionally known as ‘bazaris’) and security services see the Tripolar World as a way of surviving and thriving in the next political phase, they may ditch the current rulers.
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Iranians are proud of their civilisation, conquest, and cultural influence over the centuries and over many countries. They promote their past rulers Cyrus the Great, Xerxes, and Darius. The Roman Emperor Valerian is depicted as kneeling before the Persian Ruler after a defeat at the battle of Edessa (Urfa) in 260 AD.
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The West remembers Alexander the Great’s conquest of Persia. The Byzantines also defeated Persia in 626 AD. Turkey and Turkmenistan remember the Turkic conquest of Persia in 1025 by Toghrul Bey. Most rulers had Turkic blood until the Pahlavi dynasty took over in 1921. Narendra Modi, prime minister of India, has recently declared Persian as one of the historic languages of India, but at the same time has limited its use in the courts. Hindu India has often underlined that ancient Persian (Avestan) is dependent on the Sacred Texts of India (Rg Veda in Sanskrit).
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India’s land route is blocked by the Himalayas and would need the constant use of the port Chabahar in Iran to export westward (and northwards) by land. India has invested in the railway connecting Chabahar to the rest of the Iranian rail service.
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While Iran sees itself as a cultural point of reference, China, USA, and India see it as the meeting point of their economic interests. They believe it is too central for it to be out of their control.