The war’s days are numbered. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has now lasted more than 900 days. Ukraine has entered Russia since August 6th 2024. The three day assault on Kyiv has been going on for more than two years. Any economic, strategic, and political reason which led to this war has been wiped away.
Peace is on the horizon. Other than causing destruction and death, this war is pointless.
Let’s turn our attention to the peace treaty which will be written.
Before August 6th, it was apparent that Ukraine was being asked by the West to renounce land to obtain peace. Noam Chomsky and the Pope have advocated this position. (see the Pope's Russia Problem 3.9.23) Several Western countries have become weary of the situation which is destabilizing Europe. Eastern Europe is shocked to be left alone.
Russia has submitted to China and feels protected by someone it does not trust. (See Russia's submission to China 10.11.23)
Ukraine feels alone. Yes! It has received infinite supplies and money from the West. It has not received philosophical support.
Ukraine has turned the tables on the West and the East since August 2024.
Any draft peace treaty written previously must be torn up now.
Peace treatises are the goal of any senior diplomat. The romantic side of agreements is paramount in the world of foreign ministries. Many enter diplomatic service to witness the beauty of the forging of peace treaties.
Peace is about money. It is not about conflict or even land swaps, let alone agreements.
Whoever brings most money to the table decides and dictates what is written in a peace treaty.
Countries may be convinced to agree with rebuilding contracts. The destruction of infrastructure is sometimes aimed at offering their reconstruction to hesitant allies.
The USA and NATO will bring the most money to the table. China and India will be key players as well in the peace and reconstruction.
It is possible that the incursion into Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk oblasts is aimed at creating a possible exchange. Ukrainian territories will be returned in exchange for recently conquered Russian land. In that case, Donetsk and Luhansk may have NATO troops in a not too distant future or they may be demilitarized zones. Superficial equality.
Crimea is too close to Romania, now one of the central countries in USA strategy in Eurasia. The peninsula will have to become a NATO outpost or nominally Ukrainian land and completely demilitarized. (see Crimea the DMZ 19.1.24)
The annihilation of the Black Sea Fleet shows the US strategy to have the Black Sea as a NATO lake, like the Baltic now is. (see The end of the Black sea Fleet? 14.9.22)
Kissinger’s study (his PhD) aimed at promoting Metternich’s role in the Congress of Vienna has one fault: he wished to promote the diplomatic skills of a fellow German speaker: Metternich.
The British Foreign Secretary, Castlereagh (1812-1822) included large offers of cash and equipment to reluctant allies in all the treatises that he made his allies sign. In 1813, Sweden famously changed sides in the battle of Leipzig because of a large donation offered by Castlereagh's brother who was there present. This was the largest battle ever fought before WWI.
Strategy is marginal in terms of money. Ukraine has understood that creating a more complicated negotiating situation will favour the country which puts more money on the table. History is written by the winner. The winner brings the most money to the negotiating table.
The final peace treaty will make the USA, India, and China emerge as the economic winners. They will have divided the world into spheres of influence (see The Tripolar World 17.9.23). It may be the first official document of the new Tripolar World.